Middle Atmospheric Data Assimilation and Forecast Techniques (Final Report)

Conveners:
Andrew J. Gerrard (Cagerrar@clemson.edu)
Ruth Lieberman (ruth@co-ra.com)

2005 Friday 01 July 1030 AM - 1230 PM

Like last year's workshop devoted to the same topic(s), this workshop allowed for both invited and contributing presenters to informally discuss atmospheric data assimilation techniques and their use in subsequent forecasting endeavors. Unlike last year's workshop, we primarily focused on issues/phenomena associated with the middle atmosphere, leaving upper atmospheric data assimilation and forecasting issues to be addressed in other workshop sessions at the joint GEM-CEDAR 2005 meeting. The overall goals of this workshop were to 1) continue to raise awareness of the importance and application of such data assimilation and forecasting research in the stratospheric and mesospheric regions, 2) allow for an informal setting for both students and new researchers to participate, and 3) allow for a unique forum that such topics could be discussed within the CEDAR community, much like similar workshops held by the SPARC and IUGG communities.

The 10:30 AM Friday morning workshop was well attended and three core presentations were given by:

• Tomoko Matsuo, Ensemble Filtering using a Middle Atmosphere Model
• Han-Li Liu, Sensitivity of WACCM and Implications for Predictability
• Andrew Gerrard, Gravity Wave Propagation from the Ground to the Thermosphere: Initial Results from the FOREGRATS Model

The workshop ran over it's allotted time slot due to the active and lively discussions of both the presenters and the attendees. Specifically, numerous participants raised interesting issues and/or made informal, short presentations on related subjects (e.g., Rich Collins discussed the upcoming IPY and role of forecasting, Jan Sojka discussed the timescales involved in middle atmospheric predictability). Furthermore, small group discussions ran well into Friday afternoon.

Each core presentation had it own specific scientific conclusions which can be identified from the presenter's slides available online. Larger issues facing the community, which were also actively discussed during the workshop, included such topics as:

1. The role of the CEDAR community in progressing the state-of-the-art in middle atmospheric data assimilation and forecasting. Specifically, given that CEDAR members are largely experimentalists or theoreticians, is there enough internal support for such research? Might it be better to address these issues from within other organizations [such as those mentioned above]?
2. What is the source of funding for such middle atmospheric work? NSF is largely divided between upper and lower atmospheres, with neither specifically claiming the middle atmosphere as a realm. Given that an understanding of the "weather" of the middle atmosphere is believed to be crucial in many upper and lower processes, how/to whom should proposals be submitted to or funded by?
3. There is a lengthy and ongoing argument of whether "forecasting" should be considered a "science" or an "art form." This topic has a large number of implications and repercussions. For example, some scientific journals do not accept forecasting papers. So how do the members of the middle atmospheric forecasting community advance the field?

Those interested in other material from the workshop or who wish to express an opinion on the three sample community issues are encouraged to email A. Gerrard (agerrar@clemson.edu).