(LDS7) Middle and Upper Atmospheric Data Assimilation and Forecast Techniques (Final Report)

Conveners:
Andrew J. Gerrard, Clemson University, agerrar@clemson.edu
Robert W. Schunk, Utah State University, schunk@cc.usu.edu

2004 Friday 02 July 0800-1000 AM

This workshop allowed both invited and contributing presenters to informally discuss middle and upper atmospheric data assimilation techniques and their use in subsequent forecasting endeavors. The overall goals of the workshop were to

1. raise awareness of the importance and application of such assimilation and forecasting research in the mesospheric and thermospheric regionsw
2. allow for a unique forum that such topics could be discussed

• R. W. Schunk, L. Scherliess, J. J. Sojka, D. C. Thompson; Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Forecasting Methods
• C. Minter, Neutral Composition Data Assimilation
• S. Eckermann, Development of Global Middle Atmosphere Forecasting Capabilities at the Naval Research Laboratory
• E.M. Dewan and R.H. Picard, On Forecasting Mesospheric Bores
• A. Gerrard, Middle Atmospheric Gravity Wave Forecasting Methods

• J. Meriwether, Global network of Fabry-Perot interferometers to measure thermospheric dynamics
• O. de la Beaujardiere, Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System
• L. Scherliess, R.W. Schunk, J.J. Sojka, and D. C. Thompson; Ionospheric Data Assimilation Techniques

It became apparent both during the workshop and throughout the preceding week of the CEDAR conference that these particular topics are becoming ever more important in middle and upper atmospheric research. Our understanding of the synoptic nature of the atmospheric system increases dramatically when spatially limited observations are assimilated in real-time with physics-based models. This data assimilation product contributes to ongoing research in tidal, planetary, and gravity wave variability and to our ability to predict ESF and space weather impacts. It also naturally leads to the production of middle and upper atmospheric forecasts which allows the scientific community to truly test their understanding of the physical processes taking place.

Other than technical conclusions, the overall impressions surmised from the workshop include:

1. A large population of the CEDAR community is ready to progress/expand into a new phase of middle and upper atmospheric research that involves real-time data assimilation and forecasting of the middle and upper atmosphere. This involves a much closer working relationship between modelers, theoreticians and experimentalists than currently exists.
2. There is a desire to better organize and publicize such research topics.
3. A number of forecasting efforts are currently underway which require real-time data products (e.g., thermospheric wind and temperature data into the GAIM model of R. Schunk, mesospheric wind data into the global gravity wave forecasts of A. Gerrard, etc.)
4. There is interest in a 2-3 day workshop devoted entirely to these topics, where more time can be given to the discussion and debate of current techniques and infrastructure.

Those interested in material from the workshop and/or interested in attending a 2-3 day workshop devoted to data assimilation and forecasting are encouraged to email A. Gerrard (agerrar@clemson.edu).