(LDS4) Superstorms: Observations, Analysis and Modeling of Large Geomagnetic Disturbances (Final Report)

Conveners:
Larry Paxton (APL, Larry.Paxton@jhuapl.edu), Janet Kozyra (U MI, jukozyra@umich.edu),
Larissa Goncharenko (MIT, lpg@haystack.mit.edu), Geoff Crowley (SWRI, gcrowley@swri.edu),
Alan Burns (HAO/NCAR, aburns@ucar.edu), Wenbin Wang (HAO/NCAR, wbwang@hao.ucar.edu)

2004 Friday 02 July 1015-1215 AM

In order to accommodate the schedule demands of this meeting, this workshop attempted to combine two views of one of the fundamental problems in modeling: understanding departures from the mean state of the ionosphere, thermosphere, and mesosphere (ITM). We can approach the problem by looking at the response to the most extreme perturbations - superstorms - and addressing the question of whether we see "saturation" in either the drivers or in the response. We must also have a thorough knowledge of the mean state and the internal and external drivers that affect the ITM.

Super storms focus on processes that become evident when the forcing on the system is extreme (i.e., saturation of the polar cap potential, midlatitude great red auroras, oxygen auroras, changes in current systems, changes in conductivity patterns, extreme ionospheric disturbances, etc.) but these same processes are obscured by other processes under milder conditions. The long term goal of the organizers is to investigate how elements of the global system interact, how nonlinearities develop, how feedbacks impact the global response, etc. From the equations, that govern the atmosphere (continuity, momentum and energy) it is readily apparent that thermospheric winds play the unifying role in coupling the thermosphere and the ionosphere. To understand the dynamics we must understand the coupling between the thermosphere and ionosphere during quiet to disturbed conditions, and the problems with modeling and predicting this environment.

The session was very well attended, especially for a session on the last day of CEDAR, with an audience of about 100 people. There were several short presentations during the first part of the workshop which focused on the superstorm response. In the second part of the session, the emphasis was on delineating the issues of the neutral winds and dynamics.

Agenda of talks

I. Superstorms

• 10.15 (5 min) -- Larry Paxton -- Introduction and Overview
• 10.20 (20 min) -- Janet Kozyra -- Outstanding Science Questions for Storms and Superstorms
• 10.40 (10 min) -- Larisa Goncharenko -- Overview from MLT Storm Workshop
• 10.50 (10 min) -- Mihail Codrescu/Jon Makela -- Overview from Low and Midlatitude Storm Aeronomy Workshop
• 11.00 (40 min) -- Contributed Comments
  • Paul Straus -- Verification of TIMEGCM Low Nightside Electron Density Predictions using GPS Occultations
  • Geoff Crowley -- Modeling the Oct-Nov 2003 Storms
  • Thomas Immel -- IMAGE observations During Super Storms
  • Hyosub Kil -- Sub-gridscale ionospheric response to Superstorms
  • Yongliang Zhang -- GUVI observations of Superstorms
  • Tony Manucci -- TEC issues during superstorms
  • Ted Llewellyn -- PMC Observations by Osiris during the Oct and Nov 2003 Superstorms

II. Neutral Winds and Dynamics

• 11.45 (5 min) -- Geoff Crowley -- Neutral Winds and Dynamics Introduction
• 11.50 (5 min) -- Alan Burns -- Outstanding Science Questions related to dynamics
• 12.00 (5 min) -- John Emmert -- Development of Climatological Wind Models for Storms
• 12.05 (10 min) -- Contributed Comments
• 12.15 -- Adjourn

At the end of the workshop we took an informal poll of the audience: when asked for a show of interest in a multi-day elaboration of this workshop, the response was overwhelmingly positive. The conveners are working toward planning a multi-day workshop on storms and circulation in the ITM. Interested parties are asked to contact one of the conveners.